Losing the Levant?

This morning the Lebanese delegation pulled out of the Arab League Summit in Algeria. Although they have not said as much, it can be assumed this action is linked to the car bomb detonated in a Christian section of Beirut last night. Despite none dead and less than a dozen wounded, the blast has had a sizeable impact on the tense political climate in Lebanon.

Observing the massive public outcry in the wake of the Rafik Hariri assassination and the stern response it drew from the international community many people in the west (myself included) believed a liberalizing anti-Syria presence movement would sweep across the Lebanese political landscape. The realities manifested in the last few weeks have tweaked that conventional wisdom considerably.

After the assassination a series of candid and inspiring demonstrations took place calling for the withdrawing of Syrian troops and the resignation of the pro Syria government in Beirut. To considerable surprise, the government did tender its resignation and the Syrians executed the first part of their redeployment quickly. In response to those protests, His’Allah put together a demonstration 500,000 people strong in defense of a Syrian presence. The demonstrators simultaneously held pictures of the Syrian president (!) and chanted “no to the foreign intervention”. This epitomizes the complex and intricate nature of politics in the region.

Despite the claims of Fox News and others on the US right, these protests seem to have been entirely legitimate. The rumors that people were trucked in from the Syrian border have not been verified by any respectable source, and the footage of the event shows people actively engaged, as opposed to the window-shopping and socializing people do in the government organized marches in Iran. In further evidence that the pendulum has not swung as far as was initially thought, Omar Karami returned to his post as Prime Minister less than two weeks after having resigned.

If Syria has been dealt a shocking blow by being forced to withdraw, and the liberalizing opposition has fallen short of its goal of total change in regime, it seems an emerging winner in this may be His’Allah. As the show of support they orchestrated in Beirut illustrates, they have a huge following. The group benefits from being perceived (accurately or not) as the only Arab force to defeat Israel on the battlefield, following the Israeli evacuation of south Lebanon. Perhaps more significant than that, is that His’Allah are by far the most well organized and deep-rooted organization in Lebanese politics. Somewhat quietly, to the outside world, they have built a huge sphere of influence aside from their military operations by constructing a network of schools, clinics, and social services. This is not altogether dissimilar to the void filled by Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

As tempting as it might be to discredit His’Allah’s role in politics and write them off as just another terrorist group, that is not reality on the ground. In what may constitute a moderation of tone, NSA Stephen Hadley went out of his way to carefully choose words when interviewed on CNN last week. Hadley condemned terrorist actions but subtly told Wolf Blitzer that disarming His’Allah was not a priority for the US in Lebanon. Even if it is painful at first, working in concert with His’Allah may not only offer the most stability in Lebanon, but also distance the country from Iran by denying it a natural ally, and alienate the Sunni Islamist groups that operate in the region.

Across the border lies another incentive for cooperation. Partially a vestige of the cold war, and partially for reasons of domestic politics on both sides, the US and Syria have antagonistic stances towards each other. However, Syria has perhaps even more to fear from Islamist extremism than the US, with 75% of its population being Sunni and the Muslim Brotherhood having a substantial if clandestine presence in country. In an interview with Time’s Joe Klein earlier this month president Bashar Asad told him to, “send this message, I am not Saddam Hussein (duh), I want to cooperate.” There is probably some truth in this, more importantly he is also not his father, and I think he is well aware that he may not be able to withstand serious destabilization. Again though awkward, cooperation with Syria could lead to further stability in Iraq, engagement with Israel, and an effective ally against global terrorism.

The shocking events in Lebanon occurred with a celerity that caught the world community off guard, and in a fashion that gave us unreasonably high expectations. Now that things have unfolded and settled a bit it is crucial that the US and the world engage Lebanon and the region in a pragmatic and effective way, even it feels counterintuitive at first. The row of democracy dominos might not fall the way certain think tanks have predicted, but this might be an opportunity for tangible change in the region. A key step should be for the world to pressure Lebanese president Emile Lahoud to rethink participation in the Arab League summit, and at least send some sort of delegation. If the chaos and instability in Beirut grows, the moment for progress may be lost.